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Speculators and algorithmic traders are betting on higher oil prices due to expected policy changes under Trump and shifts in EV and oil demand.

Trump’s presidency sparks renewed optimism in oil markets

Last year’s oil market was dominated by algorithmic trading, amplifying every headline about market oversupply and Chinese demand into price swings that kept crude trapped in a narrow, disappointing range—well below OPEC+’s lofty production-cut goals. This year may not see much of a change in oil’s price amplitude, but the peaks and troughs could grow sharper, setting the stage for some dramatic action.

In the second and third week of December last year, speculators in the United States significantly increased their bets on higher oil prices, Bloomberg reported this week. In fact, in the second to last week of the year, long bets on crude reached the highest in four months, the report said, for a total of close to 183,000 lots. That followed an even more significant increase in bullish positioning in the previous week, when the number of lots hit the highest in a year.

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Source: Oil Price

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Year-to-date through July 2023, TX accounts for 43.3% of all oil production and 27.4% of all natural gas marketed production in the country.

Report: Texas oil and natural gas industry breaks decades-old production records

The powerhouse of the U.S. energy sector—the Texas oil and natural gas industry—reached a new record production high in June and July, surpassing all-time highs set 30 and 40 years ago, according to an energy economics analysis published by Texas Oil & Gas Association.

The analysis, conducted by TXOG’s Chief Economist Dean Foreman, Ph.D., shows that Texas’ production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids broke previous records and that resource reserves are expected to support decades of prospective production. It also highlights a range of records broken in May, also surpassing previous 30- and 40-year-old highs.

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Source: The Center Square

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